Porsche: No Substitute for Horsepower
Porsched has launched its Cayenne hybrid based upon that SUV’s new platform. Before people get up and arms and analyze whether a 10 percent premium and almost 400 pound weight penalty is really a sustainable solution, consider that ultimately, it will reduce Porsche’s net fleet emissions, and that is the point. The German manufacturers – Mercedes, BMW and now Porsche – have focused not necessarily on an increase in MPG exclusively, but on retaining engine power through hybrid supplements. Thus, a hybrid six cylinder combined with a battery pack will provide the power of an eight cylinder. In a world where a certain slice of the market will always seek traditional performance, it is a testament to how government incentives (CAFE) are necessary to push manufacturers to develop sustainable technology.
Cayenne hybrid story here: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-07/hybrid-porsche-introduces-highway-sailing-for-68-000-jason-h-harper.html
The New Coda Mundano. It’s Electric!
Coda, the reinvented Miles Electric vehicle company base in Santa Monica, CA, has released more information on it’s all electric sedan available sometime in 2011. How they will compete with the Nissan Leaf is anyone’s guess, as Coda’s product is based on a very traditional three box design built in China, and appears to be any Asian sedan design from the 1990s. In fact, it’s simply a rebadged Chinese Hafei. I thought that badge engineering ended with GM’s demise. Early estimates of its cost put it in the high $40,000 range.
Here’s the gasoline version: http://www.hafeiauto.com.cn/Skin/hafei/cp-saibao3.htm
More info here: http://www.gizmag.com/coda-electric-sedan/14900/?utm_source=Gizmag+Subscribers&utm_campaign=43451b503b-UA-2235360-4&utm_medium=email
Dealers Add No Value….
I think it was Jacques Nasser who said this, objectively pointing out a customer perception, when trying to turn around Ford in the late ’90s and early 2000s. Of course, dealers not traditionally being well-schooled, took it the wrong way and Nasser’s time at Ford was short-lived. Mercedes is now seeing the dealer-as-weakest-link again with the most recent strategy of making the S-Classe all hybrid.
Mercedes intends to take a bold step to satisfy strict EU CO2 emission requirements by making the S-Classe and all of its luxury cars – including AMG products – hybrids. But American dealers have already taken dislike of the idea, stating that US buyers will perceive the S-Classe as a lessor performance car. Yes, it sounds stupid. In their words.
Tommy Baker, chairman of the Mercedes-Benz dealer board and a Charleston, S.C., Mercedes dealer, said: “The most important thing in the American market — regardless of hybrid, lithium or electric cars — is that we Americans are different than any market and we are going to want those gasoline engines.” For S-class buyers, Baker said, the “goal is not gas mileage.”
Dealers have frequently misunderstood market trends and have been poor indicators of consumer preferences, but this this mis-perception is monumental. Consumers aren’t nearly as ignorant as dealers, and S-Classe buyers may not care how the car achieves its performance figures, only that it does. The fact that the car will be quick and get good fuel mileage is an added bonus. Most importantly, this is a product development decision slated for 2013, when fuel will be even more expensive. Perhaps Nasser had a very good point.
The story here: http://www.autoweek.com/article/20100405/GREEN/100409927
Nissan Leaf Available for Less Than $30k
The Nissan Leaf will be available for well below $30,000, after tax rebates and incentives, in certain markets in the US in 2011, according the CleanTechMedia Blog. Full story below.
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/nissan-prices-the-leaf-32780-but-will-they-make-money
Nissan has said for over a year that the upcoming all-electric Leaf would cost somewhere in the $20,000 to $30,000 range — and the company did it.
The Leaf will sell for $32,780 before incentives, the company announced today. A federal tax credit of $7,500 brings the effective price down to $25,280. And if you add in state tax incentives, such as the $5,000 incentive in California, the effective price dips below $20,000. Leasing plans begin at $349 a month. The price includes the battery — Nissan sells the complete car for that amount.
The car will only be available in select locations this year, but it will go nationwide in 2011. Consumers can put a reservation down April 20. It costs $99 to get on the waiting list, but that fee is refundable. Nissan says it will produce 50,000 cars the first year and start making the cars in U.S. factories in 2012.
At that price, the Leaf could become the first all-electric, general-purpose, mass-market car in years. Tesla Motors has been selling Roadsters for over a year, but they cost more than $100,000. General Motors and Toyota and others put out all-electrics in the late ’90s, but the cars were leased and taken off the market relatively quickly. Nissan, this time around, seems more committed. The technology has improved greatly since then (the batteries in the Leaf are lithium ion, after all, unlike the earlier all-electrics) and Nissan needs a breakthrough. A success with the Leaf and other all-electrics could help it gain share at the expense of Honda and Toyota. Renault Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn has said that 10 percent of its cars will be all-electric by 2020.
Americans Agree to Energy Excess, But Unwilling to Use Less
In a recent Accenture study, 75 percent of Americans are concerned about energy and climate change issues, but about 65 percent don’t believe that reducing America’s dependence on fossil fuels or foreign sourced energy is the answer. Furthermore, these same Americans are calling on the US government (84 percent) for control and intervention to address the problem of energy dependence and cleaner alternatives. Odd that Americans have confidence in the US government to address our energy challenges but not our health care issues.
Using less is the single most impactful strategy to reduce dependence, lessen existing prices and reduce pollution output. No expert disagrees, and in fact, Accenture’s own attests that “[w]e cannot address climate change or energy security unless we both create new sources of clean energy and reduce consumer demand,” said Sander van ’t Noordende, Group Chief Executive of Accenture’s Resources operating group.
More here:
Porsche Flies in the Face of Conventional Hybrids
Autoweek reported that Porsche is currently experimenting with a hybrid version of its GT-3 R using a electro-magnetic flywheel to capture kinetic energy while braking to generate electricity to power electric motors driving the front wheels. Although little is known about additional batter packs needed to store the captured energy, Porsche did reveal that the power boost would be in the 8 second range and that the technology would primarily benefit reducing fuel consumption by garnering power from new, renewable sources rather than more horsepower, which simply burns more fuel. Ingenious. This from the same company whose founder created the Alpine train almost one hundred years ago. The Alpine train placed electric motors in the hubs of trailers attached to a tractor that made regular trips up steep, narrow and rocky trails in the Alps.
Here’s more on how it works.
Some of the story here: http://www.autoweek.com/article/20100210/CARNEWS/100219985
Toyota Prius: I’m Audi 5000
Toyota will experience a similar fate as the Audi 5000 unless its management seriously and adeptly addresses the recall issue.
Continue Reading February 4, 2010 at 9:40 pm Leave a comment
Is Tesla a Good Investment?
Tesla filed its Form S-1 with the SEC for a $100 million IPO last Friday. Although I’ve written that Tesla is not necessarily a traditional automotive play – and that is a very good thing – the question remains as to whether an EV automobile company is a good investment from an individual investor’s perspective. Perhaps the answer lies in whether Tesla is more of a technology company providing mobility in the form of automobiles, or is simply an innovator in the automotive industry.
What is different about Tesla:
Tesla owns its channel of distribution, whereas most other auto companies distribute through franchised dealers, and therefore, can control the customer experience. This is a significant differentiator in the automotive world, where standards of service are poorly enforced for the customer’s brand experience. One could argue that automobiles are purely a product brand play.
Tesla licenses its proprietary EV technology (or sells its technology bundled) to other automotive companies, making it more like a technology company rather than an automobile company
Tesla uses its technology as a significant differentiator to other EV/serial hybrid vehicles: 1) the battery pack; 2) power electronics module; 3) electric motor; and 4) control software.
Creating a vehicle platform is extremely expensive, and thus, recapturing that fixed cost requires significant volume. Vehicle manufacturers have relied upon a sizable share of the market, or the ability to increase the relevance of a platform in other international markets as well us leveraging a developed platform for other vehicles. Tesla will do the later with its Model S platform. I’m not willing to put my money into Tesla just yet, despite great respect for its innovative products and distribution system. I will keep the Model S on my shortlist.
From Tesla’s S-1, the primary value of the company:
Technology
We believe the core competency of our company and our core intellectual property is contained within our electric powertrain. This powertrain is fundamentally composed of four major elements: a modular battery pack, a power electronics module, a motor and the control software which enables the components to operate as a system. We designed each of these major elements for our Tesla Roadster and plan to use much of this technology in the Model S and our future electric vehicles. Our powertrain and battery pack have a modular design, enabling future generations of electric vehicles to incorporate a significant amount of this technology. Further, our powertrain is very compact and contains far fewer moving parts than the internal combustion powertrain. These features enable us to adapt it for a variety of applications, including our future vehicles and any powertrain components we build for other manufacturers.
From time to time, we intend to enter into development arrangements with other automobile manufacturers for electric powertrain development activities. From inception through September 30, 2009, our powertrain development activities have been exclusively pursuant to a development arrangement entered into in the year ended December 31, 2008 which was formalized pursuant to an agreement entered into in May 2009 with Daimler related to the development of a battery pack and charger for Daimler’s Smart fortwo electric drive. All amounts received under this development agreement are being recognized as an offset to research and development expenses in the consolidated statement of operations. In the fiscal years ended December 31, 2006, 2007 and 2008 and the nine months ended September 30, 2009, our research and development expenses were $25.0 million, $62.8 million, $53.7 million and $11.1 million, respectively after such offsets. As of December 31, 2009 all development work related to the development agreement had been completed and we expect that the full $23.2 million under the development agreement will be recognized in the quarter ended December 31, 2009.
As of December 31, 2009, we had 120 employees in our research and development department.
Battery Pack
We have designed our battery pack to have a life of over 100,000 miles. In addition, we have designed the battery pack to be modular so that it can be used in more than one vehicle. For example, the Tesla Roadster battery pack contains 6,831 lithium-ion cells, each similar to the 6 to 12 cells (made by third party lithium-ion cell providers) found in many standard laptop computers. The cells, in turn, are housed in 11 modules. The battery pack contains 53 kilowatt-hours of usable energy, almost double the energy of any other commercially available electric vehicle battery pack, thereby significantly increasing vehicle range capability. Designing an electric powertrain and a vehicle to exploit its energy efficiency has required extensive safety testing and innovation in battery packs, motors, powertrain systems and vehicle engineering. Our proprietary technology includes cooling systems, safety systems, battery engineering for vibration and environmental durability, robotic manufacturing processes, customized motor design, and the software and electronics management systems necessary to manage battery and vehicle performance under demanding real-life driving conditions. We have significant experience and expertise in the safety and management systems needed to work with lithium-ion cells in the demanding automotive environment. We believe these advancements have enabled us to produce a battery pack at a low cost per kilowatt-hour. As of December 31, 2009, our customers had driven the Tesla Roadster for an estimated 3.0 million miles.
We believe one of our core competencies is the design of our complete battery pack system. We have designed our battery pack system to permit flexibility with respect to battery cell chemistry, form factor and vendor that we adopt for battery cell supply. We maintain an internal battery cell testing lab and an extensive performance database of the many available lithium-ion cell vendors and chemistry types. We intend to incorporate the battery cells that provide the best value and performance possible into our battery packs, and we expect this to continue over time as battery cells continue to improve in energy storage capacity, longevity, power delivery and cost. We believe this flexibility will enable us to continue to evaluate new battery cells as they become commercially viable, and thereby optimize battery pack system performance and cost for our current and future vehicles. We believe our ability to change battery cell chemistries and vendors while retaining our existing investments in software, electronics, testing and vehicle packaging, will enable us to quickly deploy various battery cells into our products and leverage the latest advancements in battery cell technology.
The range of our electric vehicles on a single charge declines principally as a function of usage, time and charging patterns. For example, a customer’s use of their Tesla vehicle as well as the frequency with which they charge the battery of their Tesla vehicle can result in additional deterioration of the battery’s ability to hold a charge. We currently expect that our battery pack will retain approximately 60-65% of its ability to hold its initial charge after approximately 100,000 miles or 7 years, which will result in a decrease to the vehicle’s initial range.
To date, we have tested hundreds of battery cells of different chemistries, form factors and designs. Based on this evaluation, we are presently using lithium-ion battery cells based on the 18650 form factor in the Tesla Roadster. These battery cells are commercially available in large quantities. We currently intend to use the same battery cell form factor in the Model S.
Power Electronics Module
The power electronics module, or PEM, has two primary functions, the control of torque generation in the motor while driving and the control of energy delivery back into the battery pack while charging. Since our powertrains today use alternating current 3-phase induction motors, we need to create alternating current and voltage from the direct current that the battery provides. The PEM performs this function both when charging and discharging the battery.
Inside of the PEM are two distinct areas, the power section or “engine room” and the command and control section. We believe we have made significant innovations in each area. We have designed the command and control section to use a high-performance digital signal processor which runs some of the most complicated and detailed software in the vehicle.
We believe another significant innovation in our PEM is our ability to combine the battery charger into the same unit as the motor controller. This is not simply putting two separate systems into the same box as is the case with some other powertrains. Instead, we have reconfigured the same hardware and have used software to accomplish this reconfiguration. By combining these functions we are able to carry a high-power charger onboard the vehicle with no significant extra cost or weight. This enables us to use any available source of power to charge our vehicle. Our vehicles can recharge on any electrical outlet from a common outlet of 15 amps and 120 volts all the way up to a high power outlet of 70 amps and 240 volts, which provides optimal recharging.
Since the Tesla Roadster charger system is built into the vehicle, it is possible to charge the vehicle using a variety of power outlets. Charging the Tesla Roadster battery pack to full capacity will take approximately 9 hours using a 240 volt, 30 amp outlet that is widely available in many homes in the United States for electric appliances. A high power connection capable of 240 volts and 70 amps reduces this charging time to about 4.5 hours. Such a connection can be installed in many homes with the assistance of a qualified electrician. For additional flexibility, the Tesla Roadster battery pack can also be charged with a 120 volt, 15 amp connection. Using this lower power output, the Tesla Roadster battery pack can be charged to full capacity in about 42 hours. This flexibility in charging provides customers with additional mobility, while also allowing them to conveniently charge the vehicle overnight at home.
For the Model S, we plan to offer a fast charge option that will enable the vehicle to charge from higher amperage, higher voltage commercial charging stations that we anticipate may be available in the future.
Motor
Our powertrains currently use custom designed 3-phase induction motors. We believe we have made several important innovations in our motor design that minimize mass while still providing high power and efficiency. Our motors incorporate a proprietary fabricated copper rotor design. Our motors also include optimized winding patterns that allow for easy manufacture and fit in as much copper as possible to reduce resistance and energy losses.
We also use high-quality bearings and precision balancing on the rotor and shaft to enable the spin of the motor up to 13,000 revolutions per minute, or rpm, in normal operation. Combining this very high rpm rating with an instantaneous stall torque of over 200 foot pounds gives a broad torque-speed map that allows a single speed gearbox to deliver high vehicle performance.
Control Software
The performance and safety systems of the Tesla Roadster and its battery required the development of sophisticated control software. There are numerous processors in the Tesla Roadster to control these functions, and we write custom firmware for many of these processors. The flow of electricity between the battery pack and the motor must be tightly controlled in order to deliver the performance and behavior expected in the vehicle. For example, software algorithms enable the vehicle to mimic the “creep” feeling which drivers expect from an internal combustion engine vehicle without having to apply pressure on the accelerator. Similar algorithms control traction, vehicle stability and the sustained acceleration and regenerative braking of the vehicle. Drivers use the information systems in the Tesla Roadster to optimize performance and charging modes and times. Software also is used extensively to monitor the charge state of each of the cells of the battery pack and to manage all of its safety systems.
We plan to leverage our investment in software for the development of the Model S. In addition to the vehicle control software, we also intend to develop software for the infotainment system of the Model S.
Vehicle Design and Engineering
In addition to the design and development of the powertrain, we have created significant in-house capabilities in the design and engineering of electric vehicles and electric vehicle components and systems. We design and engineer bodies, chassis, interiors, heating and cooling and low voltage electrical systems in house and to a lesser extent in conjunction with our suppliers. We are building core competencies in computer aided design and crash test simulations which we expect to reduce the product development time of new models.
Several traditional automotive subsystems required substantial redesign and custom optimization to integrate with the powertrain of an electric vehicle. For example, the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning, or HVAC, system was redesigned to integrate with the battery thermal management system and to operate without the energy generated from an internal combustion engine. In addition, low voltage electric systems which power features such as the radio, power windows, and heated seats also needed to be designed specifically for use in an electric vehicle. We have developed expertise in integrating these components with the high-voltage power source in the vehicle and in designing components that significantly reduce their load on the vehicle battery pack, thereby maximizing the available range of the vehicle.
Additionally, our team has expertise in lightweight materials, a very important characteristic for electric vehicles given the impact of mass on range. The Tesla Roadster is built with an internally-designed carbon fiber body which provides a balance of strength and mass. We intend to build the Model S with a lightweight aluminum body and have been designing the body and chassis with a variety of materials and production methods that will help optimize the weight of the vehicle.
We intend to develop a substantially-integrated electric vehicle manufacturing facility to manufacture components that are critical to our intellectual property and quality of the Model S. We intend for our vehicle design, engineering, and manufacturing teams to work alongside one another in an effort to accelerate the Model S development. We believe the co-location of our vehicle design, engineering and manufacturing teams will help accelerate the development of new products and allow for faster introduction of product changes.
As of December 31, 2009, we had 71 employees in our vehicle design and engineering department.
Toyota Moves Slowly Toward Smaller Hybrids
The LA Times reported that Toyota intends to deliver a smaller Prius concept to North America. Finally. The Prius is a big car, and despite its excellent MPG, most people who buy it in order to make a smaller footprint on the planet would welcome a smaller car with significantly improved MPG. Statistics show that roughly 70 percent of the miles driven in the US for commuting are done by single passengers. So think about it. All of that extra weight and needless horsepower that provides zero value to the commuting experience.
We have seen a few concepts that are double passenger cares – remember the original Honda Insight? I suspect we may even see viable, mainstream single passenger cars as well. With the modullarity of transportation design and construction, perhaps there will be viable, high quality alternatives in this regard.
The original story here: http://articles.latimes.com/2010/jan/13/business/la-fi-toyota-prius13-2010jan13
Same Old, Same Old….
Health care technology integration has been weighing me down, hence the noteable absence of posts on this blog. But an interest to help a friend inspired me to share my experiences on the difficulty of finding suitable, sustainable options for the average fashion conscious LA driver. As far as I’m concerned, most people can be well served with a Toyota Prius or VW Jetta wagon diesel. For city driving, the Prius offers excellent MPG while providing good features, such as navigation, bluetooth connection and integrated mobile functionality. And for those who need room at highway speed, the Jetta diesel will deliver German luxury with MPG in the high 40s and low 50s.
So imagine my surprise when neither of these options were of interest to a friend of mine needing luxury wheels with good MPG. His choices for the typically acceptable German brands in sedans are the Mercedes E class bluetech diesel, the BMW 3 series 335d (3 litre diesel) and the Audi A3 diesel. All have varying architecture and truly demonstrate how out of touch car manufacturers are with the American public. Why can’t I get a 3 series wagon with a diesel? Or even a 5 series? They are all available in Europe. Of course, asking these questions to the poorly trained and dismally equipped salespeople will prompt all sorts of BS answers – why can’t those people learn to simply say “I don’t know, let me find out for you?” Needless to say, another hour wasted at a car dealership with more questions than answers as a result.
Car manufacturing and distribution is not rocket science, and other than some incremental changes in the technology that is incorporated inside modern cars, not much has changed, sadly. A friend recently asked me why I choose not to pursue a career in automotive given my passion for it – although I reminded him that I have been in information technology for over 15 years, and have served the automotive vertical with supply chain software. I simply said that it was a daunting task to add significant value to an archaic and meritless org structure. Some challenges are not worth the effort.
But then Tesla came along. I remind my colleagues that Tesla isn’t so much a car company, as a technology company providing mobility. And this is a good thing.
